Journal of Administrative and Business Studies Details Journal ISSN: 2414-309X
Article DOI:https://doi.org/10.20474/jabs-5.5.4 Received: 9 August 2019
Accepted: 16 September 2019
Published: 31 October 2019
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Towards the similarity of the countries in terms of business cycle synchronization and income level equalization–empirical analysis
Michał Bernardelli, Mariusz Pró chniak, Bartosz Witkowski
Abstract
The article aims to verify the β convergence hypothesis in the entire EU28 group basing on the monthly data. Structural breaks in 2008 and 2013 have been introduced into the model basing on the turning points in the economic growth paths of the EU countries. The main value-added of the article is an assessment of monthly estimates of the rate of convergence with the use of the extrapolated data. The latter has been acquired using a monthly economic sentiment indicator based on the survey data. The β convergence hypothesis has been positively validated with the use of monthly data. However, different rate of convergence has been spotted between different turning points. Furthermore, big deviations of the estimates for extrapolated monthly data compared to the results based on the observed annual time series can be observed. The research focused on convergence every month enables a more profound analysis of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth paths in the EU countries.